C. Haden Smith
The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Risk Management Center (RMC) has developed RMC-BestFit, a Bayesian estimation and fitting software designed to enhance and expedite flood hazard assessments within the Flood Risk Management, Planning, and Dam and Levee Safety communities of practice. RMC-BestFit can incorporate multiple sources of hydrologic information, including historical data, paleoflood indicators, regional rainfall-runoff results, and expert elicitation, into flood frequency analysis. The software now includes the capability to perform nonstationary flood frequency analysis (NSFFA), allowing distribution parameters to vary with time. This feature enables users to identify changing flood risk conditions. This paper presents a case study demonstrating NSFFA for a high-hazard dam within the USACE portfolio. The study illustrates the assessment of nonstationarity due to factors such as land use changes and climate change. It showcases the selection of appropriate trend models for the distribution parameters and how to incorporate historical, censored data, as well as Global Climate Model (GCM) projections, into the Bayesian NSFFA. The case study reveals that NSFFA can significantly impact the assessment of flood risk and inform potential dam safety and reallocation measures.
$15.00
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