2024 – Integrating Emergency Response Actions into an RMC-LifeSim Potential Loss of Life Assessment

Sammy Gibbs, Paul Southcott, Craig Ludlow

A Potential Loss of Life Assessment (PLL) is an estimate of the number of fatalities that would result from failure of a dam or flooding. It is important for practitioners to have confidence in PLL estimates as they are a key input into assessments that inform significant financial decisions for dam owners. This paper encourages practitioners undertaking a PLL assessment using RMC-LifeSim, to collaborate with local emergency response authorities. This collaboration is required as each community and emergency response are unique. To build representative and realistic evacuation simulation models requires dam owners and practitioners to incorporate local knowledge.

This paper uses a case study to demonstrate how emergency response information, obtained by collaborating with the local authorities, was integrated into an RMC-LifeSim model. This paper also discusses how insights into the community from local authorities was used to verify the resultant PLL estimates and the drivers for
the estimates.

A discussion of the case study model results and the drivers for life loss where deep flood waters and early evacuation warning systems exist is included in this paper. The results highlight the significant impact ‘access to the roof’ assumptions can have on PLL estimates and that further guidance/documentation on this parameter is recommended. A recommendation for practitioners to consider this parameter as part of sensitivity testing in RMC-LifeSim models is made as part of this paper.

A key objective of the paper is to highlight how emergency response actions/plans not only influence the warning and mobilisation curves, but also other RMC-LifeSim model inputs including emergency planning zones, building database, destinations, and road networks. A list of recommended discussion points practitioners and dam owners should consider when meeting with the local authorities is subsequently included in the paper.