Chris Nielsen, David Rice, Brian Haggerty, Rob Fowden
Climate change is increasing extreme flood risk. The recent publication of scientifically robust, quantified predictions of climate change impacts to extreme rainfall and runoff (and its reference in industry guidance) means that many dams, as of today, have deficient flood capacities due to climate change impacts, and this situation is only going to worsen in future.
At the present time a risk based and progressive adaptation approach to manage climate change impacts on extreme flooding, where dams are progressively upgraded to meet future climate conditions if they cannot be made completely climate change resilient today, is considered reasonable.
In the future, climate change impacts may challenge such an adaptation strategy. If temperatures approach 30C above pre-industrial levels, current way of life and societal expectations may be severely impacted to the point where abandonment of land areas and assets (including dams) and relocation of populations may occur. At this (or approaching this) future condition there may be a shift in management strategies and a change in risk tolerability and determination of safety standards.
An approach is proposed that incorporates these considerations into dam safety upgrade strategies.
$15.00
ANCOLD is an incorporated voluntary association of organisations and individual professionals with an interest in dams in Australia.
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