2018 – Proposed Technique to Validate and Constrain Extreme Flood Estimates

Tim Rhodes, Hugh Nguyen-Mallen

Extreme flood analyses are routinely used as inputs to dam risk assessments, spillway adequacy assessments and spillway designs. Estimation methods applied in Australia using rainfall-runoff models in combination with a Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) estimate are consistent with the current best practice applied around the world. The estimation methods can, however, result in substantial variability in peak flow estimates depending upon the practitioner and the methods used to quantify model parameters. Around the world, validation procedures are commonly applied to combat this variability, but no such techniques are routinely applied in Australia. A method is proposed for application across Australia which may variously be applied to validate and constrain extreme flood estimates and also provide quick estimates.