2015 – A critical assessment of liquefaction triggering sensitivity to design magnitude for Australian dams

T. I. Mote, M.L. So, N. Vitharana, and M. Taylor

This paper explores the sensitivity of selection of earthquake design magnitude to liquefaction triggering in Australia for ground motions typically used for dams. The low seismicity of Australia creates a situation where liquefaction triggering is marginal at design hazard levels and this low level of seismic hazard makes the liquefaction trigger analysis very sensitive to the derivation of the seismic inputs. A methodology is presented that couples the probability of liquefaction triggering with the distribution of earthquake contribution to the hazard from the magnitude-distance deaggregation. The results show that for the “typical” soil profile and input ground motions approximately equivalent to the maximum design earthquake for Australia, the probability of liquefaction triggering varies significantly with the design magnitude selected. Using the maximum credible earthquake or mean magnitude may provide significantly different liquefaction triggering implications. Combining the probability of liquefaction triggering with the contribution of varying magnitudes to calculate liquefaction probability is a useful method to understanding the sensitivity of liquefaction to design magnitude.
Keywords: Liquefaction Assessment, Design Magnitude, Probability of Liquefaction, Magnitude-distance deaggregation, Australia