2011 – Recent Developments in Seismic Hazard Analysis

Paul Somerville, Hong Kie Thio

There is a large degree of uncertainty as to the true state of nature (i.e. epistemic uncertainty) regarding many aspects of seismic hazard analysis. Such differences are often highlighted by differences between alternative models put forth by different model proponents. This epistemic uncertainty is treated by giving weight to all viable alternative models through the use of logic trees in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, rather than just using a preferred model. This paper reviews epistemic uncertainties that arise from alternative distributed earthquake source models; alternative models for the recurrence of earthquakes on those sources; alternative approaches to including active faults; alternative models for the recurrence of earthquakes on active faults; alternative ground motion prediction models for Australia; and alternative methods for incorporating site response. It also reviews alternative representations of the design response spectrum for the development of ground motion time histories.

2011 – Recent Developments in Seismic Hazard Analysis