2010 – Hinze Dam: numerical modelling prediction versus performance

Gavan Hunter and James Toose

Hinze Dam, located on the Gold Coast in Queensland, is an Extreme hazard storage under the authority of Seqwater (Southeast Queensland). The Stage 3 works, which are coming to completion, require raising the existing 65 m high central core earth and rockfill embankment almost 15 m to a maximum height of 80 m. The reservoir has been near full supply level for the construction period.
Numerical modelling and empirical predictive methods were used to estimate the deformation at three key embankment sections during construction; the right abutment of the main embankment, the maximum section and the main to saddle embankment connection. The results of the analysis were incorporated into the dam safety management plan to provide a framework for evaluation of the monitored deformation during construction.
This paper summarises the numerical modelling and outlines the framework of the dam safety management plan. It then compares the actual deformation measured during construction against the predictions. Overall, the modelled deformation has compared very well in terms of trend and reasonably well in terms of magnitude with the actual deformation to date. On one occasion the deformation has exceeded the estimates and triggered a response to elevate the review to higher levels within the Alliance. Concluding comments are provided on the useful aspects and limitations of the numerical modelling at Hinze Dam.

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